Experts share their picks for the Patriots AFC Championship matchup against the Denver Broncos.
Mike Reiss, ESPN:
Pick: Patriots 19, Broncos 17
It will be difficult to win with four fumbles, so it all starts with taking care of the football.
Stephania Bell, ESPN: Patriots
Matt Bowen, ESPN: Patriots
Mike Clay, ESPN: Patriots
Chris Fowler, ESPN: Broncos
Dan Graziano, ESPN: Patriots
Kalyn Kahler, ESPN: Patriots
Pamela Maldonado, ESPN: Patriots
Eric Moody, ESPN: Patriots
Jason Reid, ESPN: Patriots
Lindsey Thiry, ESPN: Patriots
NFL.com
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL.com: Patriots 24, Broncos 21
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL.com: Patriots 24, Broncos 20
Dan Parr, NFL.com: Patriots 21, Broncos 17
Gennaro Filice, NFL.com: Patriots 20, Broncos 17
Tom Blair, NFL.com: Patriots 23, Broncos 18
Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: Because I'm not a member of the Stidham family. I kid. But clearly, in the wake of Bo Nix's gutting ankle injury, Denver is fighting an uphill battle, facing a sudden switch at the game's most important position. Jarrett Stidham hasn't thrown a pass in a real game in two years, and now he's tasked with punching the Broncos' ticket to the Super Bowl. It's a daunting development, to say the least. But at first blush, Denver still holds three advantages:
- The location: Including last Saturday's Divisional Round win over Buffalo, the Broncos own a sparkling 15-3 home record over the past two years. Denver thrives in the mile-high air, fueled by a raucous crowd that truly assists the defensive effort. Speaking of which âŠ
- The best unit: The Broncos finished the regular season ranked first in yards per play allowed (4.5), second in total defense (278.2 ypg) and third in scoring D (18.3 ppg). Oh, and they racked up a franchise-record 68 sacks -- 11 more than any other team -- with 17 different players recording at least half a sack. It's a ferocious group that can completely wreck a game, with Vance Joseph dialing up pressure from all angles. Not ideal for a Patriots offensive line that's given up five sacks in each of the past two weeks.
- The element of surprise: In a league where coaches spend so much time preparing for games that they sleep in their offices, a severe shortage of tape on the opposing quarterback throws a sizable wrench into the cram sesh. How will Denver's offense operate with Stidham at the helm? Well, you can only glean so much from preseason action, and this Broncos attack is worlds different from the one Stidham led in a two-start stint at the end of the 2023 season. In this spot, Sean Payton could dig deep into his bag to spice up the game plan, and that's a frightening thought for the visiting team.
Encouraging stuff for Denver, no? Unfortunately, New England offers a viable counter in each area:
- The location: Yes, New England has struggled through the years in Denver, carrying an 0-4 postseason record all time in the Mile High City. But these particular Patriots are bona fide road warriors. With an 8-0 mark outside of Foxborough this season, New England's the only team in the league that hasn't lost a game in the unfriendly confines. The altitude is indeed an additional factor that's unique to Denver, but generally speaking, these Pats don't cower in hostile environments.
- The best unit: The Patriots just took serious exception to everyone gassing up Houston's defense, responding with their second defensive statement in as many weeks. You have to figure Mike Vrabel's D, which yielded the fourth-fewest points in the regular season (18.8 per game), will be similarly motivated this week. With key players like Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Robert Spillane back from injury, New England's defense might be peaking at the right time. And offensively, the Pats have been a statistical juggernaut, tying for first in yards per play (6.2) during the regular season, while ranking second in scoring (28.8 ppg) and third in total offense (379.4 ypg). Denver's defense still feels like the top group entering this matchup, but either New England unit could win the day.
- The element of surprise: The Patriots don't have much recent film on Stidham, but that doesn't mean they aren't familiar with him. Quite the contrary, in fact, as New England drafted Stidham in the fourth round back in 2019, with Josh McDaniels serving as the quarterback's offensive coordinator for his first three NFL seasons. Something tells me McDaniels has contributed to this week's defensive game plan.
So, now I'm back to where I started ⊠Making cheeky (cheap) zingers at the backup quarterback's expense? No: Thinking Denver's at a disadvantage. But as my score prediction indicates, I do not think the Broncos are dead on arrival.
On the flip side, can C.J. Stroud rebound from a disastrous performance in Pittsburgh? Does he need to with that defense? I mean, he needs to do something. There's a good chance he'll be without Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins (concussion), which isn't ideal. The pressure is on OC Nick Caley to dial up a game plan -- and Stroud to execute one -- that moves the ball against Mike Vrabel's top-10 defense, which also deserves its flowers but could be without shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez (concussion). No CG would be a huge hit to that unit. He didn't allow a single reception on five targets and 26 coverage snaps last week, per Next Gen Stats. On the plus side, Gonzalez was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ultimately, I'm taking Houston because I feel THAT good about the defense. And dating back to 2024 (including playoffs), the Texans have won 16 straight games when they score at least 20 points -- a point total they've reached in every game since Week 12. They are 12-0 in such games this season -- the only team with zero losses in that circumstance. Houston will do enough on both sides of the ball to reach the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:
Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 21
With Bo Nix out with a broken ankle, the Broncos will turn to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback in this one. He hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023, but Broncos coach Sean Payton believes in him. And when he does, he usually lets the quarterback play loose.
The New England defense can be stingy, especially against the run, which can put more pressure on Payton to scheme up things to make it easier for Stidham. I think Payton is one of the best play callers in the league, so I think he will.
On the other side, Drake Maye will be making his first road playoff start for the Patriots. That can be daunting, especially against a good Denver defense. But Maye has been good on the road this season. Then again, this is the playoffs.
The Bills ran on the Broncos last week, so I expect the Patriots to try to do the same. New England is averaging 156.1 rushing yards per game over the last seven games, but I think Denver will be better this time against the run.
It would be easy to pick the Pats here based on Stidham playing. But I think the Denver players will elevate their games around him and Payton will have a big day calling the game for him. I think Denver's defense will get the best of the Pats offense. Denver goes to the Super Bowl.
Jared Dubin, CBS Sports: Patriots
Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Patriots
John Breech, CBS Sports: Patriots
Tyler Sullivan, CBS Sports: Patriots
Dave Richard, CBS Sports: Patriots
Jamey Eisenburg, CBS Sports: Patriots
Pro Football Talk
Mike Florio: Broncos 27, Patriots 23
Chris Simms: Patriots 24, Broncos 17
Paul Perillo, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 33, Broncos 16
Patriots defense feasts on backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham and leads the way to the Super Bowl.
Mike Dussault, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 27, Broncos 13
Even with Jarrett Stidham under center, the Broncos are a well-coached team with elite lines and an especially good defense. Add in the home-field advantage, and the Patriots have a major challenge. If Drake Maye can get comfortable and the Patriots can play a clean game, they can pull away with the win and punch their ticket to their 12th Super Bowl in franchise history.
Evan Lazar, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 28, Broncos 20
I believe this will be a tougher game than it appears on paper with the Broncos starting backup QB Jarrett Stidham. I have a lot of respect for Sean Payton, the Denver defense, and Mile High. Still, the Pats offense is due for a big game from QB Drake Maye. I think they'll have too much offense for the Broncos without Bo Nix.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
