There was a lot to digest from the Patriots 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday, the most points scored by a visitor in Gillette Stadium history and in the Vrabel era in any venue.
Whenever there's a lopsided loss like this, it's important to see the forest for the trees. We love scheme talk and in-depth film analysis here, but losing by 18 points at home in a game that wasn't overly competitive will likely lead to some difficult conversations inside the New Balance Athletics Center this week. It's also worth noting that not everything is as bad as it seems, just like it's never as good as it seems when the team wins. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle, which is where the Patriots are at 5-4.
That said, digging into the film from the Patriots loss to the Packers unearthed some trends that need fixing, especially against top competition, with games against the Lions (6-2), Bills (6-1 pending MNF), Vikings (6-1 pending MNF), Chiefs (6-2), and Broncos (7-2) still on the horizon.
Starting with the Patriots offense, it's fair to point to QB Drake Maye's depleted supporting cast as key context for his struggles on Sunday. In my charting, Maye still had 11 'plus' plays with two big-time throws against the Packers, but this was his first negatively graded game (12.5 minus plays) since Week 3. If you want non-eye test stats, this was Maye's second-worst game by EPA per drop-back this season (-0.32), ahead of only the Jags loss (-0.51).
Looking at the common threads from the Patriots four losses, especially games vs. top-10 pass defenses (SEA, JAX, GB), two areas are holding Maye back from being an elite quarterback against great defenses. The blueprint in those three games was for defenses to major in split-safety coverages, particularly quarters-family coverages, and timely schemed pressures. The Seahawks, Jaguars, and Packers played a combined split-safety coverage rate of 53.4% vs. Maye (league average is 43.8%). Maye threw five interceptions to two touchdowns while producing -0.14 EPA per drop-back against two-high coverages.
The most obvious reason top defenses succeed out of two-high shells, beyond being good defenses, is that capping his favorite outside vertical routes forces Maye to operate in the middle of the field. The best example was Maye's second-quarter interception when the Patriots were still in Sunday's game (17-7, 5:47 left in the half). The Pats were driving to make it a one-score game after Maye hit WR DeMario Douglas for a 33-yard completion on the first play of the drive. From the GB 44, the Packers play the down in Cover-6.
New England has WR Kyle Williams run a deep post to clear out the coverage for rookie TE Eli Raridon crossing from the backside. Raridon is getting matched everywhere by CB Keisan Nixon like it's man coverage. At the same time, the key player is Packers S Xavier McKinney, whose first responsibility is reading the slot receiver's release (No. 2). When the slot runs underneath, McKinney is in a good position to ball-hawk. Maye likely expected McKinney to stay over the top of Williams's route. Instead, McKinney jumps Raridon's crosser for an interception. As Maye said after the game, if he's going to throw to Raridon there, it needs to be his best fastball.
The other final frontier for Maye and OC Josh McDaniels is having consistent answers against pressure. Some alarming pressure rates are floating around from this game, with NextGen Stats saying Maye was under pressure at the second-highest rate of any game in his career, with only last year's Super Bowl being worse (51.2%). My read is that the pressure was more scheme-related than 1-on-1 pass-protection losses by the offensive line, which is another theme in the Patriots losses this season.
Green Bay got the Patriots several times with the same creeper pressure. With the line sliding right, the Packers blitz two off-the-line players over the left side while dropping the edge into coverage from over the right tackle. The pressure scheme overloads the left side and Maye throws the ball away after vacating the pocket. Could he have stood in and thrown the slant up top behind the blitz? Maybe. Is there a better protection call to solve the problem pre-snap? Perhaps.
To be clear, these are the final hurdles for Maye to reach the mountaintop against elite pass defenses. We're not saying that he's bad against these coverages all the time, because he's not, and he even averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt vs. split-safety coverages in games against SEA, JAX, and GB. A handful of poor plays proved costly in those losses, and Maye needs to eliminate them.
Here is a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from Sunday's loss to the Packers.
Defense Review: 'Quick' Snaps Hurting the Patriots Diguise-Heavy Coverages?
As mentioned, it's important to see the forest for the trees in performances like Sunday's loss to the Packers. Ultimately, the Patriots defense needs to execute better and win their matchups.
We can talk about scheme, which is my favorite thing to do, all we want. But the onus is on the players, especially the Patriots best players, to play to a certain standard. On Sunday, they didn't do much well, and their man coverages even struggled (Love: 10-12, 166 yards, 2 TDs vs. man coverage). However, I'm willing to chalk that up to a one-off against a good receiver duo, as this group, especially the Pats corner trio, has built-up equity, entering Week 9 ranked fifth-best in EPA per drop-back in man coverage (-0.30).
That said, my antennas are up on a few things with the Pats coverage system. For starters, I love a great post-snap coverage rotation as much as the next guy. I'm also a believer in match-quarters calls such as "poach" and "two-read" schemes, which are becoming more prevalent on DC Zak Kuhr's call sheet.
Above, the Pats run an effective "poach" rep for a third-down sack in the red zone, where the backside is manned up while S Kevin Byard plays the crosser from the three-receiver side. The coverage scheme works perfectly, with Gonzalez able to essentially play press-man vs. Golden to the solo receiver side (bottom of the screen), and the pocket collapses on Packers QB Jordon Love for a sack.
Although you can find quality reps, New England is allowing a league-worst +0.21 EPA per drop-back in zone schemes. We're willing to give them a mulligan for the man-coverage breakdowns, but it's fair to wonder whether the zone-defense struggles are now affecting their man coverages. More specifically, opposing offenses seem to have a bead on the Patriots commitment to disguising zone structures.
Speaking after the Bears loss, Vrabel pointed to Chicago using quick snaps to catch the Patriots off-guard. Quick-snapping is en vogue around the league against disguise-heavy defenses because it makes post-snap rotations harder and stresses communication. On Sunday, the Packers used 10 quick snaps, where the ball is snapped in under two seconds from when the line gets set to the snap. Green Bay gained 49, 43, 43, and 28 yards by snapping the ball in under two seconds.
For instance, the Packers hit their first explosive play to WR Matthew Golden by snapping the ball in 0.8 seconds from when the line was set. At the top of the screen, CB Christian Gonzalez and S Kevin Byard III appear to be in two different coverages. Gonzalez stays in the flat like they're playing straight cover-two zone while Byard's eyes appear to be reading the tight end's release. My guess is Byard thought Gonzalez was going to carry Golden vertical, while Gonzalez thought Byard was playing the deep half, and the result is a 49-yard gain on a busted coverage.
Here's another example where the Patriots get quick-snapped and are caught without a defender in the deep part of the field to Love's left. Green Bay snaps the ball in 1.2 seconds this time while running a hard play-action fake. It appears CB Carlton Davis III is supposed to be the deep player in an inverted cover-two. However, the quick snap and play-action fake get Davis sucked into the line of scrimmage, and WR Christian Watson gets behind the defense on a deep over route from the other side of the formation.
There was some bad luck in the last one we'll show, with Gonzalez tripping as he turned to play the ball downfield. Still, the Pats are quick-snapped (1.6s) in another coverage rotation, with NCB Marcus Jones as the post-safety in a Cover-1 scheme, and S Craig Woodson and Byard in man coverage (Byard and Jones are barely set at the snap). Woodson gets matched on Packers WR Bo Melton, who was open over the middle, but Love opts to throw the 1-on-1 to Golden, who wins against Gonzalez for a 43-yard completion.
Whether it's attacking rules or using tempo, opposing offenses are generating explosive passes against the Patriots defense. Some of that is because the Bears and Packers are great at creating big plays. But the Pats have allowed a 21.3% explosive pass play rate in the last three weeks. Overall, the Patriots are now 21st in explosive pass play rate allowed this season (17.1%). Obviously, that needs to improve.
Quick-Hit Film Notes from Patriots-Packers
Offense
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson's (knee) status moving forward is the top news item coming out of Sunday's game. Although he had some issues, including fumbling for the third time this season and allowing two pressures in blitz pickup, Stevenson is New England's entire backfield right now. He had three explosives with a 30-yard TD (wheel route), a 19-yard weaving run inside a "crunch" scheme, and a 12-yard crack toss run. Stevenson played 38-of-44 snaps before exiting the game late in the third quarter.
- WR DeMario Douglas contributed to Maye's last turnover-worthy play by failing to finish his out route while getting jammed by Packers CB Kamai Hadden in the slot. Still, Douglas has become nearly unstoppable running intermediate crossing routes, separating with ease from NDB Javon Bullard on a 36-yard crosser, finding the zone void on a 33-yard crosser, and catching a 20-yard shallow cross. Douglas's career-high 102 receiving yards came at a time when the Patriots needed someone to step up from their depleted WR room, so although it wasn't perfect, it's hard to knock the only wide receiver creating consistent separation.
- WR Mack Hollins ran a nice stutter-and-go for a 22-yard touchdown in garbage time, was quickly available for a 9-yard curl and a 5-yard slant, but was targeted on Maye's first interception. Maye probably expected Hollins to continue across the field, but he was covered either way. The ball should've gone to the deep post when McKinney jumped Hollins's route.
- WR Kyle Williams has to complete the first go-ball target that he misjudged while tracking it over the shoulder. It looked like Williams tried to play through the defender to draw a flag, but the ball was thrown perfectly if he had kept running full speed, and the jockeying with the corner seemed to cost him. Maye could've led him more when Williams was 1-on-1 on the backside on Williams's targeted interception.
- WR Efton Chism III ran a nice route on his touchdown in the Patriots delayed release scheme, which is close to automatic in the low red zone. Still, a nice sell to engage with the defender and then release with good timing off the bluff block. Chism also caught a 10-yard whip-style route to move the chains on third down and threw a nice perimeter block on Stevenson's 12-yard run inside a crack toss scheme.
- TE Hunter Henry is gutting it out for the team with catches of 21, 9, and 5 yards while playing through a foot injury. Henry played only 31 snaps (50.8%), with four in the run game. The Pats saving him for passing downs makes sense, and Henry settling into a zone void on a deep dig for a 21-yard gain was one of the better connections of the day.
- Rookie TE Eli Raridon has become a nice outlet for Maye against pressure with completions of 15 and 9 yards on shallow crossers behind blitzes. Maye and Raridon also made up for his interception target by connecting on a similar route concept for a 28-yard gain. The Pats tried to sneak Raridon out on the leak concept for a big play, but he got held up in the trash too long for the play to hit properly. Overall, Raridon was back to chipping in on a few nice chunk plays after a quiet outing as the featured tight end in Miami.
- RB Lan Larison was in a trial by fire late in this one that was shaky (incomplete wheel route, blown-up screen, two blitz pickup pressures); Rookie TE Tanner Arkin was on the scene for two stuffed runs, one via blown block and a 6-yard TFL on one looked like a blown assignment. On Monday, the Patriots released Arkin from the 53-man roster (he'll likely be back on the practice squad).
- LT Will Campbell was on the scene for a sack on a three-man stunt and a stuffed run, but he had a plus-run block as the puller in a crack toss scheme (12-yard gain) and didn't allow any additional pressure. Campbell said he would've returned to the game after getting leg-whipped early in the fourth quarter.
- LG Ben Brown was also in the mix on the stunt sack as he and Campbell didn't properly exchange the looper coming from the middle of the line. There were also a few leaky run blocks from Brown, who left the game with a knee injury in the second quarter. With so many moving parts on the O-Line, stunts have been an issue.
- C Jared Wilson got schemed up on a sack and a QB hit. Usually, we put it on Maye/the protections when Wilson opens in the wrong direction, which is what happened on the sack. The Packers ran one of their many creeper pressures with Wilson opening to the shaded nose tackle off his left hip, and the pressure came off his right edge. It's not 1-on-1 losses, but Wilson has one or two per game where the line appears to slide the wrong way. Wilson also appeared to allow a QB hit on a "coffee house" stunt, where the defender fakes like he's dropping into coverage and then blitzes on a delayed rush.
- RG Matt Pryor allowed a team-high three pressures with two stunt pressures allowed and one 1-on-1 loss. Pryor is mostly solid when he's base blocking or in power engagements in 1-on-1s. But they've got to manage his side-to-side movement and ability to pass off stunts. Again, the stunts are a thing every week.
- RT Morgan Moses allowed a QB hit when Brenton Cox Jr. created a short corner around his outside edge, which led to a HAT for Maye on Chism's third-down conversion. Besides that, Moses was clean and he's cleaned up the penalties over the last two weeks.
- LG Walter Rouse allowed a sack in the second half when he was beaten on a double-swipe move by DT Karl Brooks. Depending on the availability of C/G Greg Van Roten (designated to return from IR last week), Rouse could be in line to start, with Vrabel saying Ben Brown is not expected to make the trip to Germany.
- Rookie Caleb Lomu played the last 16 snaps for Campbell at left tackle, allowing a high-side speed pressure to Packers OLB Lukas Van Ness. Lomu has also had some issues blocking as the jumbo tight end, which is odd, because the tackle reps have been mostly solid. Although the live-game reps are good for the rookie, you wonder whether second-year OT Marcus Bryant might be a more effective run-blocker in jumbo packages.
- QB Pressures (pressure rate - 46.5%): Pryor (sack, hit, hurry), Rouse (sack, hurry), Brown/Campbell (sack), Maye (sack), Stevenson (two hurries), Larison (two hurries), Moses (QB hit), Wilson (QB hit), Lomu (hurry), Bryant (hurry).
Defense
- Although he was involved in both, I'm putting two completions into Gonzalez's side of the field as "team" coverage busts. We went over the quick-snap explosive to Golden above. My read on the Golden 5-yard TD was that Gonzalez might've been right there, taking No. 2 breaking out while expecting NCB Marcus Jones to switch onto Golden's slant, which is common in the low red zone. It's hard to say for sure without knowing the calls, so we'll chalk those up to busts.
- CB Christian Gonzalez allowed a career-high nine catches for 188 yards and a TD vs. the Packers. Plus, he was called for an 11-yard DPI, missed a tackle on a 34-yard run, and could've strung out a 13-yard end around by getting outside the perimeter block. Gonzalez also allowed three deep catches on passes over 20 air yards; he's never allowed more than one in a game and has allowed just seven in his prior 40 career games combined.
My read on Gonzalez without any inside information: he's being asked to do a lot, and his head might be spinning a bit. The Pats are having him play press-man, off-man, cover-three deep thirds (both bail and off-coverage), match-quarters, cover-two flats, and inverted cover-two (half-field safety) against top competition. It's pro football, but there's a lot of scheming going on in the backend. Here is a route-by-route breakdown of the nine catches Gonzalez allowed:
- 43-yard go route to Golden, backside man coverage (tripped)
- 39-yard TD skinny post to Watson, match quarters
- 33-yard corner route to Watson, man coverage
- 24-yard crosser to Golden, cover-three/deep-third
- 16-yard out to Golden, man coverage
- 10-yard out to Watson, quarters technique
- 10-yard out to Golden, off-man coverage
- 9-yard out to Golden, quarters technique
- 4-yard out to Golden, press-man coverage
- DT Milton Williams was the Patriots best defensive player with three quarterback pressures and a run TFL. Williams logged pressures with his bull rush (caused Ponder sack), a swim move, and he quickly shed a play-action pass set by RG Laken Tomlinson on his third pressure. He also backdoored a run play with an arm over/swim to register his run TFL. Williams could've played a 34-yard run better to avoid getting caught so far upfield, which is my one nitpick, but he was noticeable on the tape throughout.
- Besides jumping offside, DT Cory Durden continued to flash impressive power into the line of scrimmage with three stuffed runs and a pressure using his bull rush. Durden is on a two-week heater, feasting on weaker interior O-Lines. His ability to consistently reset the line of scrimmage and bull rush is good stuff.
- DT Christian Barmore also flashed a few times by creating a short corner using his two-hand swipe rush on his sack, stuffing a 3rd-and-1 run at midfield, and logging a late pressure. It's good to see Barmore counter quick-setting guards bracing for his hump/bull rushes with hand swipes. That has unlocked some quick wins for him over the last few weeks, and used to be a bigger part of his game. Glad it's back.
- DT DaQuan Jones bull-rushed C John Williams into Love's lap to help collapse the pocket on Love's sack; DTs Leonard Taylor III and Joshua Farmer combined on a T/E stunt to log QB hits, while Farmer was credited for stuffing a run as well.
- OLB Elijah Ponder closed the pocket as the looper on a T/E stunt working with Barmore on his sack and logged another pressure when Love tried to escape the pocket in his direction (Jones was coming from the other side); OLB Dre'Mont Jones also jumped offside and was combo'd off his edge on a 10-yard run, but his bull rush caused Love to step up into Ponder on a sack and he also stuffed a run with a good edge set.
- OLB Gabe Jacas was called for offside trying to jump the snap count, his third straight game with a penalty. The rookie is still working through some growing pains in that regard, but logged a pressure that likely saved another deep completion for the Packers with Watson open downfield.
- LBs Robert Spillane (blitz pressure, run stuff, seam-splitter coverage) and Christian Elliss (blitz pressure, run stuff, blown-up TE screen) had some moments. Spillane did just enough running the shoot with TE Tucker Kraft to necessitate a perfect throw on a pass that fell incomplete. But you would've liked to have seen Elliss take a better route to Love on his scramble TD as the low-hole defender in man coverage.
- CB Carlton Davis III allowed a 43-yard completion to Watson on an inside post route that appeared to be a blown assignment/late rotation (shown above). He also was in coverage on a 9-yard mesh crosser, but defended a go ball well to Watson to log a PBU, the Pats best deep-ball defense in the game.
- NCB Marcus Jones allowed a 28-yard completion in man coverage on a Watson crosser after Davis left the game. Jones also could've had better depth on his short zone drop to help shrink the passing window to Golden on a 24-yard crosser. You'd like to see a little better awareness of routes filling in behind Jones when he drops into the short zone distribution.
- CB Karon Prunty was competitive in coverage. He played his out-of-phase technique correctly on Williams's 10-yard TD, but the rookie just needs to "drive the pocket" more effectively to play the hands and punch the ball out. Besides losing at the catch point, I thought Prunty had some encouraging reps.
- S Kevin Byard III was in the mix on a 49-yard deep ball to Golden. Byard's recovery talent at age 33 seems to be in slight decline, making those late rotations or recovering from false steps against speedy receivers tough. Byard did stuff a run and didn't appear responsible for any other coverages.
- S Craig Woodson stuffed an RPO screen and did enough to stick Williams on a stuffed jet sweep. Some of Woodson's "poach" techniques are playing a little shallow, which is somewhat by design, but it's leaving the Pats vulnerable to deep posts from the passing strength (see: Watson TD).
- QB Pressures (pressure rate - 31.4%): Ponder (two sacks), Barmore (sack, hurry), Williams (three hurries), Jacas (two hurries), Taylor (QB hit), Farmer (QB hit), one hurry each (Elliss, Durden, Spillane, DaQ. Jones). Run stuffs: Durden (three), two each (Reed, Barmore, Spillane), one each (Jacas, Obiazor, Farmer, Gonzalez, Woodson, Muasau, Elliss, Williams, Dre. Jones, Byard).
- Coverage: Gonzalez (10/9/188 yards/TD/PBU), Davis III (3/2/52 yards), MJones (4/4/44 yards), Prunty (2/2/19 yards/TD), Elliss (2/2/9 yards), Reed (1/1/7 yards), Spillane (1/0/0), team/coverage busts (49-yard completion, 5-yard TD).
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