Experts share their picks for the Patriots Week 16 matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
Mike Reiss, ESPN:
Pick: Patriots 16, Bills 13
The Patriots' top slot cornerback Jonathan Jones (groin) is out, and that is significant. Jones has the lowest completion percentage against him of the 24 corners in the NFL who have faced more than 30 passes in the slot this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have run 3-WR personnel 69% of the time, fourth most in the NFL. Bills slot receiver Cole Beasley could have a big day.
Marcel Louis-Jacques, ESPN
Pick: Bills 13, Patriots 10
Bold prediction: As if predicting a Bills win at Gillette Stadium isn't bold enough, I'll go a step further. The Patriots have allowed four 100-yard rushers this season: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Mark Ingram II and Buffalo's Frank Gore. They'll allow a fifth on Saturday, when Bills rookie Devin Singletary crosses the century mark.
Mike Golic, ESPN: Bills
Seth Wickersham, ESPN: Patriots
Mina Kimes, ESPN: Patriots
Dan Graziano, ESPN: Patriots
Trey Wingo, ESPN: Bills
Kevin Seifert, ESPN: Patriots
Matt Bowen, ESPN: Patriots
Mike Clay, ESPN: Patriots
Jason Reid, ESPN: Bills
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com
Pick: Patriots 16, Bills 14
Tom Brady and the New England offense are down to doing one thing well: not turning the ball over. That's helped the Patriots build up a silly +24 turnover differential, including +3 when they snuck past the Bills in Buffalo back in Week 4. In a chilly game where I don't trust either offense to move the ball, the Patriots will need Josh Allen to provide extra possessions and good field position again. Brady won a Super Bowl in 2001 with a familiar recipe: limited offensive mistakes, a fantasy defense, a playoff bye and good fortune. That appears to be that Pats' only path forward this season, with two sub-standard offenses left on the schedule to dismantle before earning that bye.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:
Pick: Bills 20, Patriots 17
Can the Bills win at Foxboro, where they are 2-16 since 2000? Yes, they can. The Patriots offense is limited, and that's never a good thing against a good defense. The concern is the Bills offense against that Patriots defense. Even so, look for Josh Allen to play well as the Bills pull off the upset.
Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports: Bills
Will Brinson, CBS Sports: Patriots
Dave Richard, CBS Sports: Patriots
Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Bills
John Breech, CBS Sports: Bills
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: Patriots
Jared Dubin, CBS Sports: Patriots
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk:
Pick: Patriots 17, Bills 10
At some point, the Bills will unleash Josh Allen as a runner. It likely won't be this week, and that means the Patriots will be able to complete the sweep.
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk:
Pick: Patriots 13, Bills 10
The Patriots are slouching toward the postseason, but they'll shut down the Bills' offense and win this one.
Jenny Vrentas, MMQB: Patriots
Conor Orr, MMQB: Patriots
Kalyn Kahler, MMQB: Bills
Andrew Brandt, MMQB: Patriots
Mitch Goldich, MMQB: Bills
Bette Marston, MMQB: Patriots
Andy Hart, WEEI
Pick: Patriots 20, Bills 16
Las Vegas expects this to be a very low-scoring game, but still has the Patriots as nearly a touchdown favorite. In many ways the game comes down to one thing – Allen's ability to avoid interceptions. If he turns the ball over, things will snowball in the Patriots' favor in the cold. Allen deserves credit for the way he has played. But it's still hard to assume he won't turn the ball over against the best takeaway defense in the NFL. Edelman's health and the inefficient passing game are huge factors. New England's running game is coming off a solid performance, but the Bills' defense is a much bigger challenge. The Patriots haven't lost consecutive games at home since 2008. Of course, this has been a pretty unique season in a lot of ways. Still, in the end, Brady, Belichick and the Patriots get the benefit of the doubt inside Gillette Stadium. So we'll go with a 20-16 win for New England. But there is no doubt that this game could go either way in oh so many ways.
Paul Perillo, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 16, Bills 12
Two strong defenses coupled with two struggling offenses make for a hard-fought battle that will likely be decided by a turnover or two. I like Tom Brady's chances of protecting the ball better than Josh Allen.
Mike Dussault, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 17, Bills 16
With a banged up Julian Edelman it's hard to predict any kind of offensive explosion for the Patriots against a very good Bills defense that has given Tom Brady fits over the last few seasons. Still, the Patriots defense and special teams have been making game-changing plays all season long and they should once again make the difference in a closely-fought game.
Erik Scalavino, Patriots.com
Pick: Patriots 20, Bills 17
This game could look eerily similar to the one these two teams played in Buffalo earlier this season. But with the AFC East crown on the line, it could be even tighter. If neither team makes any glaring mistakes, the outcome could come down to which team has the ball last.
Megan O'Brien, Patriots.com
Pick: Patriots 17, Bills 14
Saturday is a big Nick Folk game. Patriots win by a field goal.
