With new coaching staffs for the Patriots and Raiders, Sunday's regular-season opener at Gillette Stadium is filled with unknowns.
New England will play its first game that counts in the head coach Mike Vrabel era. The team identity under Vrabel is not a mystery, as the head coach has made his "effort and finish" mantra known throughout the summer: "build a team, compete for a role and prepare to win," Vrabel often says are the pillars of his football program and coaching philosophy. However, the coaching staff led by Vrabel, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and defensive coordinator Terrell Williams has yet to game-plan an opponent together. They've also been holding certain cards close to their chests in terms of schematic wrinkles during the preseason.
The same applies to the visiting Las Vegas Raiders under first-year head coach Pete Carroll. After being let go by Seattle following the 2023 season, Carroll is back in the head coach's office following a gap year as a senior advisor to new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald. The 73-year-old Carroll is the oldest head coach in the NFL, but the endless energy and enthusiasm that he brings to the sideline are still omnipresent. With 18 years of experience as a head coach, including three seasons as Patriots head coach from 1997-1999, Carroll's coaching style isn't a mystery, but this Raiders regime is still fresh.
Following a successful few years at the helm, Vegas retained defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, a Bill Belichick disciple who typically calls an aggressive man-blitz defense. That said, Carroll, who has a defensive background, still has his fingerprints on the Raiders defense, while Chip Kelly is returning to the pro game for the first time in nearly a decade as Vegas's offensive coordinator.
After stints with the Eagles and 49ers in the early 2010s, Kelly returned to college football, where he most recently directed the Ohio State offense in their national championship season a year ago. Kelly is now bringing his offense back to the NFL for the first time since 2016 as the Raiders offensive coordinator under Carroll. Kelly has evolved as a schemer to run a more pro-style system, so we might not see the warp-speed, spread-to-run system that he ran during his Oregon heyday, where Kelly pioneered offensive philosophy in the college ranks.
"[The Raiders] have a first-year defensive coach with a coordinator that's been there and done stuff, and then they have a new offensive coordinator who's been in the NFL and has also come from The Ohio State University. That's pretty unique," Vrabel said this week. "Just trying to get themes and concepts and ideas of what they may want to do defensively with Pat [Patrick Graham] and Pete's style and scheme, and then what they may want to do offensively from what Chip [Kelly]'s done in the past in the NFL, from what he's done in college, [and] what Geno likes."
Given that new coaching staffs on both sides have evolved schematically through trials and tribulations, Sunday's regular-season opener is a mystery box. These coaches have staple plays and core philosophies, but until the game declares, there's an unknown element to both the Patriots and the Raiders. As a result, Sunday's game comes down to two things: executing your base stuff and in-game adjustments. Eventually, the two staff's will get a feel for what the opponent is doing, so whoever can adjust on the fly the best will likely win the chess match.
Let's get into the X's and O's of Sunday's regular-season opener for the Patriots vs. the Raiders at Gillette Stadium with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Patriots Offense vs. Raiders Defense: Will Vegas's Defense Take After Carroll or Graham?
Carroll and the Raiders are airing on the side of continuity by retaining defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who was initially hired by then-Raiders head coach and current Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels back in the 2022 season.
Before leaving to further his career on the defensive coordinator track, Graham cut his teeth at the NFL level as a defensive assistant for the Patriots (2009-15). Graham's defenses have historically played a good amount of man coverage. Last season, Vegas led the league by playing cover zero on 10 percent of their defensive snaps and ranked sixth in simulated pressure rate (2.5%). Simulated pressures are when the defense threatens a blitz with five or more rushers near the line of scrimmage but only rushes four defenders after the snap to confuse the pass protection. Graham successfully generated pressure with scheme, tying for fifth in unblocked pressure rate last season (8.1%).
However, Carroll's roots as a defensive mind are in the Seattle-3 system, with four-man fronts and cover three structures being his base defense. In the preseason, the Raiders played a league-high 57.9% of their coverage snaps in cover three, and their tape was filled with Seattle staples from traditional over fronts to the different coverage calls. With that said, you can't look too much into the preseason. The Raiders were vanilla in exhibition games, and although there are Seattle imprints, Vegas has clearly stated that Graham is calling the defense. From this perspective, the expectation is that Vegas will combine Graham's third-down pressure packages with Carroll's early down zone coverages.
For example, here's a third down snap from the Raiders defense in the preseason. The Raiders are in a double-mug front with pass-rushers lined up in the A-Gaps to simulate pressure but fall into a four-man rush while playing cover three. Typically, this coverage is referred to as cover three (mable), where the defense zones off the passing strength while the backside corner is man-to-man on the solo receiver in a 3x1 formation. The Raiders zone off the three-receiver well to get the quarterback to hold the ball, and speed-rusher Malcolm Koonce wins off the edge to register a sack.
Assuming the Raiders continue to blend Carroll and Graham's systems, their pass defense could be vulnerable to downfield crossers and running back routes. With zone defenses, most offenses use play-action fakes to test eye discipline because defenders playing in the box have pass (zone drops) and run fit responsibilities. If you can displace those defenders with fakes, then they'll be a beat behind their coverage assignments.
McDaniels has also succeeded with scheming open running backs against Carroll's defenses. In these schemes, you can often get running backs matched against linebackers in coverage without much help. That allows the backs to get loose, with option routes breaking away from defenders' leverage into space underneath zone coverages.
The Patriots OC has a longstanding history facing Carroll's defense, whether those were coached by Carroll himself or his disciples (Dan Quinn, Gus Bradley). The tricky aspect for the Patriots offense is how much of Graham's scheming will seep into Vegas's defense.
Patriots Defense vs. Raiders Offense: How Will the Pats Defend Backs and Tight Ends?
Moving over to the Patriots defense, one question mark for Vrabel and company is how New England plans to cover dynamic pass-catching running backs and tight ends.
Over the summer, there were times when the Pats defense had issues with backs and tight ends. Mainly, screen passes to backs and tight ends Zach Ertz and T.J. Hockenson gave New England some problems during joint practices with Washington and Minnesota. To be fair, the Patriots weren't game planning for the backs and tight ends specifically in joint practices or preseason games. Still, it's a question that's top of mind about this defense with the Patriots facing Raiders TE Brock Bowers and first-round pick RB Ashton Jeanty right out of the gate.
In the last two drafts, Vegas used its first-round draft choices on the two dynamic playmakers considered blue-chip prospects. Last season, Bowers set an NFL rookie record with 112 receptions and a rookie tight end record with 1,194 receiving yards. The 22-year-old combines straight-line burst, short-area quickness and the ability to unlock his 6-foot-3 frame to win at the catch point. Jeanty, on the other hand, has great burst and rare contact balance, racking up an insane 125 forced missed tackles at Boise State last season.
Carroll is also reuniting with QB Geno Smith in Vegas, who was Carroll's starter for his last three seasons in Seattle. Smith, who beat the Pats last season in a 23-20 overtime win, is an underrated quarterback. Geno ranked 14th in total QBR in Carroll's last season with the Seahawks and has been one of the best passers in the league from clean pockets in recent seasons, so he shouldn't be overlooked.
As for Kelly's scheme, the Raiders offensive coordinator has evolved since his first stint in the NFL. Kelly was once a trailblazer with his no-huddle spread offense at Oregon and with Philadelphia, playing at a pace that few had attempted before at this level. Since he didn't have staying power in the league, Kelly has slowed things down in recent seasons, especially with Ohio State. The Buckeyes were in the bottom half of the FBS in plays per game, ran more under-center concepts, and incorporated more gap runs under Kelly. Overall, these adaptations suggest that Kelly's system is more pro-ready than it was the first time around.
"Chip's offense has expanded and grown. I mean, Chip used to call it on an index card. He had seven plays and they just were really good at them and they went really fast," Vrabel told reporters on Wednesday. "That's all evolved from the stuff at UCLA, from the stuff at Ohio State, to what he'll do with those skilled players that we mentioned with the Raiders."
For example, Ohio State's under-center package featured plenty of window dressing. Above, the Buckeyes dress a play-action fake with a tight end "sift" block from the backfield and a hard run fake like the quarterback was going to boot out of the pocket. Instead, the quarterback stays in the pocket, while the receiver at the bottom of the screen (Jeremiah Smith) runs a fake reverse to scheme Smith wide-open for a touchdown in last year's championship game.
During the preseason, the Raiders ran most of their plays from the shotgun or pistol. Vegas only went under-center four times for either goal-line runs or QB sneaks. They also mostly majored in outside zone or zone-read concepts for Jeanty, who was only targeted once in the passing game. Kelly was extremely vanilla with his preseason passing concepts, running basic stick and four verticals on the bulk of Smith's exhibition snaps. Frankly, we wouldn't take much from the Raiders preseason, as Kelly repeatedly called the same handful of plays.
That said, Kelly will likely keep the pace at a manageable tempo as he did at Ohio State last season. We can also expect Kelly staples, such as the mesh concept and gun/pistol runs. From an individual matchup standpoint, Bowers, in particular, is a real test for the Patriots new coaching staff on game-planning for a unique offensive weapon. Bowers can't be treated as a run-of-the-mill tight end. The Pats could put a corner, like Carlton Davis or Alex Austin, on Bowers in passing situations.
Between having a plan for Bowers (and Jeanty) and adapting on the fly to Kelly's offense in his return to the pros, New England's defensive staff has a good first challenge on its hands.
Key Matchups
RT Morgan Moses vs. Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby
Although the conversation will center around the Patriots rookie left tackle, 4th overall pick Will Campbell, the four-time Pro Bowler rushes over the right tackle roughly 80 percent of the time. Vegas could move Crosby around to target Campbell in passing situations, but Moses will likely see more of the high-energy splash play artist. Crosby is an all-around force who ranked in the top-10 in pass rush and run-stop win rates last season. Due to his potential impact, slowing down Crosby is as much about the coaching staff as it is the players on the field. Historically, McDaniels throws the kitchen sink at dynamic rushers like Crosby by making them play through multiple blocks and process a wide variety of blocking techniques. One would expect plenty of chips, double teams, and other tricks of the trade.
LT Will Campbell vs. Raiders EDGE Malcolm Koonce
Given that Crosby typically rushes over the right tackle, Campbell will face off against Koonce in his first regular-season game. Koonce, who missed the 2024 season due to a torn ACL, logged eight sacks and 52 total pressures in 2023. Koonce is a speed rusher with good burst around the arc and closing speed to the ball. The fourth-year pro could test Campbell's ability to protect his outside edge. Although he's on Crosby's level, Koonce is no slouch.
WR DeMario Douglas vs. Raiders DB Jeremy Chinn
Although it could've been a vanilla preseason thing, Chinn being the Raiders primary nickel defender stood out on the preseason film. If that holds, the Pats could get their shifty slot receiver on Chinn, a safety, which should be advantage Douglas. McDaniels is a master at finding favorable matchups for his slot receivers on safeties and linebackers, so one would expect the Pats to hunt Chinn if he is Vegas's nickel defender.
CBs Carlton Davis/Alex Austin vs. Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers
With the game-planned attention going to Bowers and Jeanty, the trickle-down effect in the passing game is that Meyers will have plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities. As a result, this is where top CB Christian Gonzalez's availability becomes a factor. If healthy, Gonzo could have Meyers on an island with doubles/bracket coverage on Bowers. If the All-Pro corner is unavailable, now Meyers will be matched up with a corner further down the Patriots depth chart. On a positive note, Austin had a strong summer.
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