Week 4 of the NFL is officially in the books! The Patriots lost a heartbreaker last week against the Panthers, seeing Cam Newton drive down the field to set up Graham Gano for the game winning field goal.
From a fantasy perspective, Tom Brady had another good performance, completing 32 of 45 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns totaling 23.48 DraftKings Fantasy Points. Brady's new favorite target, Chris Hogan, racked up 17 DraftKings Fantasy Points; he had five receptions on nine targets, 60 yards and a touchdown.
The Patriots have a short week and play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Thursday Night Football game, so they will not be on the main DraftKings slate. However, we do have some awesome matchups for Week 5, which I'll break down below. Let's get right to it! As always, you can reach me on the ol' Twitter machine **@SBuchanan24**.
GAME NOTES
Highest Scoring Game
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys - 53 projected points
The Packers and Cowboys have, by far, the highest combined total on this Week 5 main slate. The Cowboys check in as slight favorites with an implied point total of 27 points. Dak Prescott ($6,800) saw a $600 increase in his salary from Week 4 after his 23.5-fantasy-point performance against the L.A. Rams. Prescott threw for 256 yards including three touchdowns and an interception. The Packers have been tough on opposing quarterbacks thus far, allowing an average of 210 passing yards per game and four touchdowns, which is tied for the third-lowest total in the league. I expect Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) to continue to post huge numbers in this game, as he has the more favorable matchup. Aside from the 24 fantasy points he's averaging this season, Rodgers gets a Dallas defense allowing an average of 257 passing yards with eight touchdowns given up.
Lowest Scoring Game
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals - 39 projected points
The Bills and Bengals have the lowest projected total of the week at just 39 points. The Bengals are slight favorites here with a 21-point projection. This is going to be a tough game overall for both sides, as defensively, both have been fantastic. The Bills have only allowed one passing touchdown on the season while the Bengals have allowed a total of 742 passing yards, the third lowest in the league. One thing worth keeping an eye on is the health of Bills CB E.J.Gaines. Gaines left last week's game against the Falcons with a groin injury, putting his Week 5 status as questionable. If Gaines is out, Bengals WR A.J. Green could see Leonard Johnson, who has been targeted against 20 times allowing 14 catches for 118 yards. But the Bills could also shadow Green with reigning AFC Defensive Rookie of the Month winner Tre'Davious White.
DVP MATCHUPS
Format: Team vs. Opponent, Defense vs. Position Rank
Worst QB Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1st |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Buffalo Bills | 2nd |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3rd |
Best QB Matchups
| Team | opp | dvp rank |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | Tennessee Titans | 31st |
| New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | 29th |
| San Francisco 49ers | Indianapolis Colts | 28th |
Worst RB Matchups
| team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals | 4th |
| Detroit Lions | Carolina Panthers | 5th |
| Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | 6th |
Best RB Matchups
| team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Rams | 32nd |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Jacksonville Jaguars | 30th |
| Cleveland Browns | New York Jets | 29th |
Worst WR Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1st |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2nd |
| Oakland Raiders | Baltimore Ravens | 4th |
Best WR Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | Tennessee Titans | 31st |
| Arizona Cardinals | Philadelphia Eagles | 29th |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals | 28th |
Worst TE Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | San Francisco 49ers | 1st |
| Dallas Cowboys | Green Bay Packers | 2nd |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals | 3rd |
Best TE Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | New York Giants | 32nd |
| New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | 31st |
| Oakland Raiders | Baltimore Ravens | 29th |
TARGET REPORT
Last Week's Leaders
| player | team | last week's opp | targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | TB | 15 |
| Andre Ellington | ARZ | SF | 14 |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | LAR | 14 |
| Jaron Brown | ARZ | SF | 12 |
| Aldrick Robinson | SF | ARZ | 12 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | PHI | 11 |
| Evan Engram | NYG | TB | 11 |
| Allen Hurns | JAX | NYJ | 10 |
| Duke Johnson | CLE | CIN | 10 |
| Brandon Marshall | NYG | TB | 10 |
Last Three Week's Leaders
| NAME | TEAM | LAST 3 WEEKS TARGETS | AVG TARGETS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 34 | 11.3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | 33 | 11 |
| Jarvis Landry | MIA | 33 | 11 |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 31 | 10 |
| Keenan Allen | SD | 30 | 10 |
| Jaron Brown | ARI | 29 | 7.3 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 28 | 9 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 28 | 10.3 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 28 | 9.5 |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | 27 | 7.8 |
LINEUP QUICK HITS
QB To Build Lineups Around...
Carson Palmer ($5,900) –Aaron Rodgers is likely going to be popular this week, so I'm looking at Carson Palmer at a $2,200 discount. Palmer is throwing a ton of passes, averaging 45 per game, and he is completing 59% of them thus far. While the Eagles have a great defense up front, they're extremely beatable in the back. The Eagles only trail the New England Patriots in total passing yards allowed at 1,204, which averages out to 301 per game. They've also given up seven touchdowns through the air through four weeks. With the amount the Cardinals throw and their running game still a bit murky, Palmer should be a great option in Week 5.
WR To Pair Him With...
Jaron Brown ($4,500) –First and foremost, you have to love any QB/WR stack that runs you only $10.4K on the week, leaving you with an average of $5.7K for the rest of your lineup. Brown was a huge part of the Cardinals' offense last week, drawing 12 targets, bringing his yearly average up to 7.2 on the year, totaling 105 yards. While Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800)continues to be a target monster in the red zone, Brown is currently second on the team with seven red zone targets, trailing the 13 of Fitz. Jaron Brown was on the field for 82 of 86 offensive snaps last week, lining up on both sides of the field.
The Top Running Back Will Be...
Le'Veon Bell ($9,500) –Bell's salary has jumped all the way to $9,500 in Week 5, taking the honor as the most expensive player on this 11-game slate. However, with the expensive salary comes a good spot for him against a tough Jacksonville defense. With the Jaguars essentially shutting down any production through the air, the Steelers should rely heavily on Bell. Heading into Week 5, the Jaguars have allowed the second most total rushing yards at 576 with four rushing touchdowns allowed. Opposing backs have also caught 18 of their 23 targets for 130 yards. Bell should run wild in this matchup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
