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Expert Predictions: Week 4 picks for Patriots at Chiefs


Experts share their picks for the Patriots Week 4 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Mike Reiss, ESPN:

Pick: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27

Bold prediction: Patriots running back James White's return to the team provides a spark, and he will have a receiving TD, becoming the fastest RB in NFL history to reach the 25-TD reception mark (80th regular-season game). Brian Westbrook currently holds the record with 25 in 87 games.

Adam Teicher, ESPN

Pick: Chiefs 27, Patriots 22

Can the Chiefs crack the code of Stephon Gilmore? The veteran Patriots cornerback has been a problem for the Chiefs in four games against them since he arrived in New England. Gilmore has allowed just five catches for 84 yards when targeted as the nearest defender in coverage in those games, according to NFL Next Gen Stats data. He has not allowed a completion to Tyreek Hill in those four games in which he has been the nearest defender in coverage.

Seth Wickersham, ESPN: Patriots

Mina Kimes, ESPN: Chiefs

Dan Graziano, ESPN: Chiefs

Trey Wingo, ESPN: Chiefs

Kevin Seifert, ESPN: Chiefs

Matt Bowen, ESPN: Chiefs

Mike Clay, ESPN: Chiefs

Jason Reid, ESPN: Chiefs

Damien Woody, ESPN: Chiefs

Gregg Rosenthal,

Pick: Chiefs 31, Patriots 23

This is the fourth time Patrick Mahomes has faced the Pats in his young career. His PFF grade is 63.8 against New England, compared to 95.0 vs. the rest of the league, but this is not the Patriots' defense of yesteryear. Stephon Gilmore's late-season slump in 2019 has continued into this season. Beyond Chase Winovich, the Patriots don't have much of a pass rush. New England has the cornerbacks to limit some of Kansas City's outside routes, but the Chiefs simply have more counters up the seams.

It's not the Patriots' offense of yesteryear either, but that may be a good thing for this matchup. Cam Newton has led the most efficient rushing attack in football through three weeks, according to Football Outsiders. That matches up well against the Chiefs' defense (fifth vs. the pass, 30th vs. the run), making the Patriots the perfect team to employ the "keep the ball away from Mahomes" gambit. That could lead to a fun study of contrasts, but it's always seemed like a sucker's move to me. Losing faster is still losing.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:

Pick: Chiefs 37, Patriots 24

It's always a treat when these two get together, even if Tom Brady isn't a part of it anymore. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive showing at Baltimore and I think that carries over here. New England is great taking away one thing on offense, but this is an offense with many. Chiefs take it.

Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports: Chiefs

Will Brinson, CBS Sports: Chiefs

Dave Richard, CBS Sports: Chiefs

Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Chiefs

John Breech, CBS Sports: Chiefs

Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: Chiefs

Jared Dubin, CBS Sports: Chiefs

Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk:

Pick: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27

If there's a postseason rematch, I'll pick the Patriots. For now, Kansas City has the horses to outscore Cam Newton and company.

Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk:

Pick: Chiefs 24, Patriots 21

It wouldn't surprise me if the Chiefs have a bit of a letdown after their big win on Monday night, but even with a letdown I see them finding a way to beat the Patriots.

Paul Perillo,

Pick: Chiefs 38, Patriots 26

Too many options for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to choose from.

Mike Dussault,

Pick: Patriots 31, Chiefs 29

The Patriots have yet to put together a complete game despite showing positive elements in each of their first three contests and are now in a somewhat unfamiliar underdog position, which could motivate them to bring their best game of the season. The Pats have had stints of success against the Chiefs and this time around the secondary and ground attack can be the difference makers in a back-and-forth affair that comes down to the very end.

Erik Scalavino,

Pick: Chiefs 33, Patriots 23

K.C. looks unbeatable right now, but New England absolutely can win this game. To do so, the Patriots will need to run the ball effectively, which they've demonstrated they can so far this season, thereby controlling the game clock and limiting the Chiefs' offensive possessions. They also need Kansas City to make mistakes on both sides of the ball, but particularly on offense, where they have a loaded arsenal. That might be asking too much, especially at Arrowhead, where the crowd (albeit limited) could be a factor in a Patriots game for the first time this season.

Megan O'Brien,

Pick: Chiefs 34, Patriots 28

Patriots defense struggles to stop Patrick Mahomes and the lethal KC offense. The offense puts up its most complete game of the season, but it's not enough to keep up with Kansas City.

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