For the third straight week, the New England Patriots (-1.5) are on primetime, this time to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. Despite being on a two-game losing streak and on the road, the Patriots are 1.5-point favorites over the 4-8 Cardinals - who are coming off of their bye week.
After a mini-bye of their own, the Patriots will hope for better offensive production Monday night. They'll have a strong opportunity to do so against an aggressive Cardinals' defense that ranks 24th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA rating. On the flip side, the Patriots' defense will have their hands full with another mobile quarterback, Kyler Murray, and No. 1 wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. With that, the point-total for Monday night sits at 43.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are four bets we'll be keeping an eye on throughout the primetime matchup.
No position has torched the Cardinals' defense like tight ends this season. On the year, Arizona has allowed 73.3 yards per game to the position, the most in the league.
Henry, who continues to out snap and run more routes than counterpart Jonnu Smith, has been more involved for New England the past two weeks seeing five targets in both games. His role likely will be even larger with Jakobi Meyers (concussion) sidelined Monday night.
The pick: Hunter Henry Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Another benefactor from Meyers' absence should be wide receiver Nelson Agholor. Back in Week 12 when Meyers was in and out of the lineup dealing with a shoulder injury, it was Agholor who took almost all the snaps in replacement. The result was six catches for 65 yards and a score on a season-high eight targets.
Agholor was again first-man up when Meyers missed the end of last week's game against Buffalo. He should be in line for an increased workload and success could be found with Arizona's top slot cornerback, Byron Murphy, out with a back injury.
The pick: Nelson Agholor Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
Another game, another top-tier quarterback-wide receiver duo on deck for the Patriots' defense to try and contain. This week, that'll be Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. New England's defense has struggled the past two weeks against two of the better passing attacks the league has to offer. Those struggles could continue against Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and the rest of Arizona's pass catchers, especially as cornerback Jalen Mills (groin) will be sidelined for the second straight game.
New England will also have to worry about the mobility of Kyler Murray. While Arizona has dialed back their designed run usage this season, they certainly took note of what Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields did to the Patriots' defense earlier this season. Murray is extremely dangerous with the football in his hands and may be able to give New England fits Monday night.
The pick: Kyler Murray Over 267.5 passing + rushing yards (-115)
Conquering the Cards
At 6-6 with just five games remaining, the Patriots need every win they can get. That starts with a winnable game in Glendale. Arizona has lost four out of their last five games, allowing 32.0 points in such losses. For New England's offense, this is a chance to get back on track against a defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in points allowed and dead last defensively in the red area.
While Arizona provides a tricky matchup with a mobile quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver, and aggressive defense, New England needs a bounce-back performance to stay in the thick of the Wild Card hunt. They will be able to do so as the Cardinals struggles at home continue - where they've lost 10 out of their last 11 games.
The pick: Patriots ML (-115)