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Betting Breakdown: Week 7 vs. Bears

New England enters the primetime matchup against the Chicago Bears as eight-point home favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16).
Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16).

The New England Patriots (-8) take the field under the bright lights of Gillette Stadium Monday night, and they could do so with quarterback Mac Jones. According to multiple reports, Jones is expected to be back under center in Week 7 after missing the last three games with a high-ankle sprain.

New England enters the primetime matchup against the Chicago Bears as eight-point home favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. With the Bears sitting at 2-4, the Patriots are currently receiving 79 percent of the public bets. The current point total sits at 40.0. 

Here are five of our favorite bets to watch during Monday Night Football.

King Kobi

Stop us if you've heard this before: Jakobi Meyers continues to be the Patriots most consistent receiving threat. That shouldn't change this week as he gets a prime matchup against Chicago slot cornerback Kyler Gordon. According to Pro Football Focus, Gordon has surrendered the third-most receiving yards (2.27) per coverage snap entering Week 7 (minimum 100 coverage snaps). His 67.5 percent open target rate is also fifth-highest in the league.

To help Jakobi's case even more, either New England quarterback will likely be operating from a clean pocket for most of Monday night. The Patriots offensive line has allowed just a 21.6 percent pressure rate while Chicago's defensive line ranks last in pass-rush win rate. On the year, 81 percent of Meyers' targets have come from a clean pocket, accounting for 91 percent of his total receiving yards.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

The pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

Defensive Dominance

The Patriots defense has gotten back on track the past two weeks, allowing just 15 total points while forcing six turnovers. More importantly, they proved they can limit run-first teams after getting gashed on the ground by Aaron Jones and Lamar Jackson in consecutive weeks.

They'll face another team that relies on the run game this week against the Bears, who according to Deatrich Wise hold a "powerhouse" running back duo in David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. The Patriots will try to build off their success from the last two weeks and limit Chicago's rushing attack, putting the ball in Justin Fields' hands.

From there, it's difficult seeing Fields being able to consistently move the ball against New England, who likely will focus on taking the Bears main receiving threat, Darnell Mooney, out of the game. If New England can pressure Fields - while keeping rush lane integrity to avoid big plays from Fields on the ground - and make him become a pocket passer, it could be a long night for Chicago's struggling offense.

The pick: Bears Team Total Points Under 15.5 (-120)

Major Monty

While David Montgomery has lost carries to backup Khalil Herbert the past few weeks, Montgomery has continued to receive the majority of work in the passing attack. Last week against Washington, Montgomery ran 30 routes compared to Herbert's seven.

Montgomery has eclipsed this receiving yard mark in every game this year but one (which he left early due to an injury). As for New England, they have been vulnerable against running backs in the passing game, giving up the 10th most receiving yards to the position this season. In a game where Chicago may be required to rely on the pass, Fields could be forced to look for his check down option plenty.

The pick: David Montgomery Over 10.5 receiving yards (-120)

Mr. Monday Night

Did you really think we wouldn't have a tight end prop on the week of National Tight End Day?

The Patriots tight end duo has come to life in recent weeks, especially last weekend against Cleveland when they combined for six catches, 122 yards, and a touchdown. With Jones looking to be back under center and New England potentially down a pair of receivers in Nelson Agholor (hamstring - questionable) and Kendrick Bourne (toe - questionable), Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry could be busy yet again.

Last year against the Indianapolis Colts - whose defensive coordinator was new Bears head coach Matt Eberflus - it was Henry who had a busy night with a pair of scores. Touchdown opportunities should again be available for the tight end duo, perhaps down near the goal line off play-action as the Patriots will likely look to continue to pound the football out of heavy personnel groupings against Chicago's 27th ranked rush DVOA defense.

We'll go with Smith to find pay dirt this time, continuing his streak as he has scored in three out of his last four Monday Night contests.

The pick: Jonnu Smith Anytime TD Scorer (+750)

Primetime Cover

Even if Mac Jones has some first half rust in his return from an ankle injury, the Patriots should have no problems scoring enough points against Chicago's defense.

On the other end of the ball, New England's defense is the real advantage in this one. The unit has shown the past two weeks they can limit run-first teams. They do so again this week against the duo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert and are then able to pressure and shut down Justin Fields and the Bears passing attack.

The Patriots have covered five of their last six games as a home favorite and continue the trend Monday night against Chicago.

The pick: Patriots -8 (-110)

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