New England is en route to Buffalo for Sunday's matchup vs. the Bills at the new Highmark Stadium, and there's a positive update on the seven questionable Patriots on Saturday.
After ruling out CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and DT Christian Barmore (shoulder) and listing seven players as questionable on their final injury report, the Patriots got some good news on Saturday: starting RT Morgan Moses (foot), rookie TE Eli Raridon (thigh), FB Reggie Gilliam (knee), and defensive starters S Craig Woodson (shoulder), LB Christian Elliss (chest), and OLB Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder) all made the trip.
Raridon and Woodson both traveled to Jacksonville last week but were inactive in Week 3. So, traveling to Buffalo doesn't necessarily mean the seven questionable Patriots will play. Still, it's a positive sign that they have a chance to play in a pivotal AFC East matchup.
Along with their key questionable players traveling to Buffalo, the Patriots elevated S Mike Brown and CB Kindle Vildor from the practice squad for Sunday's game. It's Brown's second straight elevation, and Vildor is up to provide depth at outside cornerback without Gonzalez this week.
Starting on offense, Moses appeared hampered by his foot injury in last week's loss to the Jaguars, an uncharacteristically shaky performance for the 13-year veteran. Moses allowed three quarterback pressures and was slow to line up between plays at times, which put the Patriots up against the play clock a few times. To his credit, Moses seems to battle through injuries to be available for his team, but it's fair to wonder whether his injury is limiting his effectiveness too much to play through a banged-up foot.
The Patriots have first-round rookie Caleb Lomu who could fill in for Moses at right tackle. Lomu was drafted to be the 35-year-old veteran's successor and a top backup tackle this season. Last week, Lomu played the final 20 snaps for Moses in a loss to the Jags, allowing two pressures in 14 pass-blocking snaps. Throwing the rookie into the fire to face the AFC's Defensive Player of the Month in September, Bills OLB Greg Rousseau, is a tall task, but Lomu may need to play if Moses can't be effective on his injured foot.
New England's tight end and fullback positions also have injury question marks. Raridon missed last week's loss in Jacksonville with a thigh injury he suffered in Week 2. The third-rounder has flashed big-play ability as a receiving threat at tight end, hauling in a 30-yard catch vs. the Steelers, and head coach Mike Vrabel has credited the rookie for improving as a run blocker. Raridon is an important chess piece in the Patriots offense who can force personnel binds for defenses with his run-blocking and receiving skills.
Similarly, the Patriots brought in Gilliam as a free-agent addition to run more effective two-back sets. However, the veteran fullback continues to manage a knee injury. He played only eight snaps last week and 21.7% of snaps through three games. In the first three weeks, New England is producing -0.40 EPA per play with Gilliam on the field, while ranking 29th in EPA per play from two-back formations (-0.34). Obviously, that's not all on Gilliam, but he hasn't had a huge impact yet, possibly due to a lingering knee issue.
Turning to the defense, the Patriots are hoping to get top pass-rusher Dre'Mont Jones and starting S Craig Woodson back this week, which would be huge given the defense is already down two key starters.
Jones practiced in a limited capacity this week and had a heavy wrap on his injured shoulder. The veteran edge rusher left the game in the second quarter in Week 2 and then didn't play in Week 3 after leading the team with a team-high six quarterback pressures in the Patriots season opener. Last week, Elijah Ponder (82% snap rate) and second-rounder Gabe Jacas (78%) played the majority of the game. So Jones's return could help New England get back to a more comfortable three-man rotation on the edge.
Along those same lines, Woodson missed last week's game with his shoulder injury, which had a trickle-down effect in the secondary. Patriots S Jaylen Reed started alongside captain Kevin Byard III. However, because New England lacked depth at safety, it had to move away from the three-safety packages it used over 20% of the time in the first two weeks to match Jacksonville's heavy personnel groupings with 27 snaps in base defense.
Given that Buffalo plays the most multi-tight-end sets in the league (56.5%), personnel matching between the Pats defense and Bills offense will be huge. Buffalo has three productive tight ends and entered the week as the top-ranked rushing attack in EPA. The Patriots need to find a personnel grouping that can stop the run and cover Buffalo's tight ends effectively. If Woodson can play, one would expect them to return to their three-safety packages, which are better equipped to play pass defense than their base defense.
As for the two practice-squad elevations, Brown played 19 special-teams snaps in Jacksonville to replace the workload S Dell Pettus (ankle, injured reserve) left behind in the kicking game. One would think Brown is "up" again this week as a core special-teamer while providing injury insurance in case Woodson can't play or is limited. Although Woodson's status is uncertain, the Pats available safeties as of now are Brown, Byard, Reed, and Woodson (shoulder, questionable).
Vildor was competing in camp for a rotational outside-corner role. The veteran had some positive moments, including two pass breakups in a preseason exhibition vs. the Eagles. However, the Patriots gave roster spots to their two rookie corners, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada, who would've been subject to waivers unlike Vildor, a vested veteran. Without Gonzalez, Vildor is up from the practice squad to provide depth behind projected starters Carlton Davis III, Charles Woods, and nickel Marcus Jones.
With the Patriots already ruling two players out, New England will need to declare five more players as inactive 90 minutes before kickoff on Sunday. All eyes pre-game will be on the seven questionable Patriots to see if they're active, while rookie QB Behren Morton will likely be the emergency third quarterback – it'll be interesting to see pre-game who will be available for the Patriots.
The Patriots will visit the Bills at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
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